So Many Defensemen, So Little Space! (PG, Part 3)

ApproCHez, ApproCHez!

Now this is where it gets more complicated…

In the last post, we saw that 3 of the 7, or more likely 8 openings on the Habs blueline have already been filled. Penciled in are P.K. Subban, Alexei Yemelin and, barring a miraculous trade, Jaroslav Spacek. This trio eats up about $5,89M of our proposed $20M allotment for defense.

The Habs also have six restricted free agents whose rights they can retain simply via a qualifying offer. Only one of them is a true NHLer.

v      One-way contract:

• Josh Gorges:

Before his longtime injury finally got the best of him, “Gumbi” was well on his way to becoming a fan favorite in Montreal. Identified as a “young leader”, the unprepossessing Gorges’ heart, character and resilience got him deserved praise during the Habs 2010 cup-run. Not bad for a stay-at-home defenseman who is neither big nor spectacular.

Able to line up on both sides of the ice with aplomb, Gorges is a versatile, low-maintenance rearguard: he’s efficient in his own zone, an excellent penalty-killer, able to initiate the transition with a good first pass, and can pitch in, albeit sparingly, on offense. His mistakes are few and far between. He will sacrifice his body by accepting checks and blocking shots, or even by playing hurt (apparently, since his junior days!). Gorges knows how to make the most of his ability (as the cliché goes, “he does the little things well) and, perhaps more importantly, always “brings it”. His leadership skills made him a dark horse candidate for the captain’s job last summer, and both his teammates and the organization seem to like him (he sat at the draft table last summer, and represented the team at the Heritage Classic’s press junket).

There seems little doubt that the Habs intend to keep him in the fold, perhaps even to lock him up for a good long while. But are they willing to do so at any cost, and is he worth it? (Topham at Lions in Winter has an interesting take on that very point).

Everything hinges on Gorges’ status as an RFA. The Habs could simply make him a qualifying offer, at $1,3M (his real-dollar salary last year) for one year, but that would be impolitic unless the Habs do not intend to keep him long-term. Moreover, another team might then try to woo him away with an offer sheet.

Having played 6 seasons in the NHL, Gorges is eligible to arbitration. The bad news is that arbitration is an adversarial process that usually leaves both parties bitter and unsatisfied, which is why many contracts are signed only days or even hours before the scheduled hearing; the good news is that arbitration shields the player from predatory offer sheets. Hence, if the Habs decide to take Gorges to arbitration in the coming weeks, do not panic: it protects their exclusive negotiating rights until the arbitration date.

To my mind, Gorges is perhaps one of the best #5 defencemen in the league (and a good #4). That makes him excellent trade bait (see Topham’s argument), but the return would have to be significant (a top 6 forward with immediate impact… or perhaps a top 5 1st round draft pick!) for the Habs to consider packaging him out. I don’t think that will happen: because of the stabilizing influence he brings to the blue line, the quality minutes he eats up, and the “imponderables” he provides, the Habs will probably offer him a new contract.

There are two reasons why it might not (yet) be a long-term deal. The first is the injury: the brass might want to ensure that Gorges is back at 100% before committing. The second, which is valid for all signings, is the looming renegotiation of the CBA in 2012: although another lockout/strike should hopefully be avoided, negotiations might yield a lower salary cap, and/or provide the possibility to buy back an expensive albatross (hey there, Scott) without penalty, etc. Teams will be reluctant to establish their salary structure before they know what tomorrow will bring.

On the downside, a one-year contract would take Gorges to unrestricted free agency and would strengthen his bargaining position next year.

Part of an agent’s job is to identify “comparables” to gauge their client’s value. While I have no idea how that is actually done, possible candidates for this exercise could include:

• Atlanta’s Mark Stuart (same age, more physical but less versatile), who makes $1,700,000;
• Minnesota’s Greg Zanon, who’s a bit older but very similar, and makes $1,933,333;
• Niklas Hjalmarsson (who is younger, more physical, and a Cup winner) saw Chicago match a $3,5M offer sheet last year;
• After a good playoff performance, Cup winner Rob Scuderi got $3,4M from LA as aUFA;.
• Atlanta got Johnny Oduya, who is slightly more experienced (and also a Cup winner!) for $3,5M.
• ***UPDATE: St-Louis just signed 25-year-old stay-at-home defenseman Roman Polak to a 5 year, $2,75M cap hit contract***

Gorges should not get more than $3M (returning from season-ending injury, insufficient experience, no Cup), but the “Montreal premium” might drive his salary over Zanon’s $2M. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him offered more or less double his current salary, somewhere between $2,5M and $2.75M… no longer the bargain he was, but good value nonetheless.

For the sake of argument, let us assume something like $8,25M for 3 years / cap hit: $2,75M (buying one more year of free agency).

Hence, $8,64M would buy us half of our defense corps for next season.

v      Two-way contracts:

• Yannick Weber

Given his progress, “le jeune Vébère” can now legitimately stake a claim on a permanent job… but it might not be with the Habs!

What the Canadiens’ brass think of Weber is unclear (I am not sure he has won over the coaching staff), and the acquisition of a similar player in Raphael Diaz only fuels this uncertainty.

Weber is at the very least a valuable depth defenseman because of his low price (a $605,000 qualifying offer, if nothing else) and the fact that he would still be exempt from waivers on a two-way contract. On the other hand, he is also a young, skilled puck-moving defenseman with a booming right-handed shot and the ability to quarterback a powerplay (not yet displayed at the NHL level, though). Such players do not grow on trees, and there might be a demand for his services on the trade market. With Subban, Diaz and maybe even Carle in the mix, Weber might prove expendable if the quest for a quality top 6 forward requires it.

Still, I believe he will still don the bleu-blanc-rouge come October, possibly in a “Mark Streit-lite” swingman role as the 8^th defenceman/14^th forward, if only for a year. The Habs may offer him a one-way contract instead of a qualifying offer, in which case he could get something like $875,000 (same as last year’s cap hit, with bonus). Let us assume that Weber will sign a new contract for $900,000.

• Alexandre Picard:

Picard is only 25, and has size and puck-moving skills, but he is woefully inconsistent and a liability in his own zone. He is running out of NHL opportunities, and won’t find one in Montreal.

Of course, the Habs could keep him around, strictly for depth purposes, by qualifying him at $660,000 with a two way contract (he still would have to clear waivers upon his first demotion, but might not have to go trough re-entry waivers if called up). I am not sure whether this is even possible, since Picard’s NHL experience makes him arbitration-eligible. IF it is, the Habs could set up an experienced “bullpen” in Hamilton, with lefties Picard and Henry, plus righties Diaz and (perhaps) Carle available in case of emergency.

Conversely, the brass might decide to “accommodate” Picard and let him go altogether, allowing him to seek employment elsewhere, hopefully in the NHL, or perhaps in Europe.

• Mathieu Carle

The right-hander was again the best defenseman in Hamilton… when he played. His career so far has been hampered by numerous injuries, and although he his only 23 year old, Carle finds himself at a crossroads: will he become an AHL lifer (or a European expat), or will he be given a chance to prove himself in the NHL?

Alas, unless a catclysm befalls the defense or a spectacular trade occurs (wiping out Spacek and Weber, for instance), this opportunity will not come from Montreal.

However, if he does not leave as part of a trade package, Carle could be snatched in late September by another organization looking for affordable defensive depth, since he is not waiver-exempt. The Tampa Bay Lightning, home of his former GM Julien BriseBois and coach Guy Boucher, comes to mind !

• Frederic St-Denis

St-Denis fought an uphill battle to end up where he is. Undrafted after 5 years with Drummondville (QMJHL), he played a season at Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières before signing with the Bulldogs as a free agent. He then spent some time in the ECHL before graduating to Hamilton, where his steady play soon made him indispensable, and the Habs finally inked him to a 1-year contract last season.

He is an efficient rearguard in the AHL, but is not an NHL prospect, as he lacks the requisite size and skill set. However, his impeccable work in Hamilton and resilience in the face of adversity might earn him a short cup of coffee in Montreal, if the Habs feel he deserves having his dream come true.

• Kyle Klubertanz

Klubertanz is a product of the NCAA, who came to the Habs by way of Europe. He played in Finland and Sweden before joining the Bulldogs last year. The Habs will probably qualify him, as they usually do with minor RFAs, but they have no plans for him beyond Hamilton. Whether he comes back to the ‘dogs next year or chooses to go back to Europe remains to be seen.

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If we accept the assumptions made above, we have now spent $9,54M on 5 defensemen (Subban, Spacek, Yemelin, Gorges and Weber), most of them young and relatively green. You know what must be done next!

Next up: the UFA Defencemen

CHazam!