One Month Later : State of the Habs!

ApproCHez, approCHez !

Yes, it has been a month to the day since my last post. During that time, I felt I had to refrain from comment so as to allow the Habs reconfiguration, however slight it might turn out to be, to take its course: restocking the pipeline at the draft, selecting what personnel would return, and addressing more pressing needs through free agency. Time’s up: I’m Back!

The Draft: Tales of the Unexpected

Whether Montreal’s 2011 draft class is remembered as one of pleasant surprises of missed opportunities will depend not only on the players picked, but also on the would-have-beens, as best laid plans were seemingly waylaid at every turn.

Experts agreed that the Habs should address one of several concerns in their organizational structure by targeting a forward, with either skill (Nicklas Jensen, Matt Puempel), size (J.T. Miller, Zach Phillips) or grit (Tyler Biggs, Boone Jenner). A few foresaw the arrival of a bulky defenseman (Jamie Oleksiak, Joe Morrow). They were both right… and wrong!

Drafts never go as expected, and this one saw players like Mark Scheifele, Jonas Brodin, Oleksiak and Miller go much higher than expected, leaving erstwhile top 10 candidates in the lurch. And so it came that the Habs, poised to select big center Mark McNeill at #17, saw rearguard Nathan Beaulieu fall in their lap… and just couldn’t pass on the gifted puckmover. Hoping for a double whammy, Pierre Gauthier did scramble to obtain pick #18 from Chicago, but to no avail (one wonders what he offered, since he had no 2^nd rounder): Timmins named Beaulieu, McNeill became a Hawk… and the Habs ended up with a defenseman instead of the forward they planned on selecting!

Given the perceived similarity in the quality of prospects in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds, and figuring that two for the price of one was a sound option, Gauthier traded down his 3^rd rounder for a pair of 4^th, secure in his belief that the player he coveted would still be available by then. The gambit almost paid off… but came to naught when Ottawa picked skilled (but small) Jean-Gabriel Pageau, just before Montreal could. Timmins then turned to another defenseman, drawing unheralded American Josiah Didier out of his college hat… and the Habs ended up with a defenseman instead of the forward they planned on selecting!

Small (but skilled) winger Olivier Archambeault was then drafted in Pageau’s stead, while 21-year-old defenseman Magnus Nygren became the undeniable out-of-a-left-Scandinavian-field selection of the day.

After bringing a fourth defenseman into the fold by picking Darren Dietz, the Habs finally did manage to get their hands on a big forward, hulking Czech center Daniel Pribyl, before reverting to their fabulously unsuccessful habit of recruiting defensemen out of US high schools (Mac Bennett is promising, but Joe Stejskal, Scott Kishel, Philippe Paquet and the unmitigated disaster that was David Fischer are not, unlike successful 1^st rounder Ryan McDonagh… in New York!). However, since the Habs could not even be bothered to sign half of the 7^th rounders they picked since 2008, chances are Yale-bound Colin Sullivan will never be heard from again.

At the end of the day, the tally was: defensemen 5, forwards 2.

Although greeted with surprise in most quarters (and irritation in some), the stockpiling of defensemen, particularly scaled as it will turn out to be, is not devoid of sense (an upcoming entry targeting the current depth of the Canadiens organization will hopefully show that!). But all that belongs to the future. A more pressing matter – the status of Habs numerous free agents – had to be resolved forthwith.

Picking up the Pieces

To no one’s surprise, news that Andreï Markov would don the bleu-blanc-rouge in 2011 promptly followed (though many were astounded to hear he would do so for 2 years thereafter). Wagering on the word of their doctors, the Habs signed their once and future #1 defenseman to a 3-year contract at the salary he was already earning, as was expected all along. James Wisniewski’s tenure on Montreal’s blueline was as good as done.

Thus came true the not-very-bold prediction I made a month ago, namely that “the GM will take the conservative road and keep things as they are, letting the Wiz leave for greener pastures. Whether he will manage to recoup his loss and trade Wisniewski’s rights before July 1^st is anybody’s guess.” As a matter of fact, he did, gaining Columbus’ 5^th round choice (2012) in the process.

More surprising was the offer to 37-year-old warhorse Roman Hamrlik. It came with a sine qua non, risk-averse term of 1-year designed to offset the dreaded effect of the 35+ contract. Wisely, Hamrlik refused to take the bait, and chose to test the far more promising free agent waters, where he eventually got the 2 years he was looking for. Exit James, exit Roman…

Conversely, Josh Gorges’ decision to take his case to arbitration (adding a negotiation tool to the weak arsenal available to him as a RFA) was predictable. While the resulting uncertainty does create delicious drama for the fans, nobody seems to be that bothered on either side of the actual fence: Gorges expects to be back, and Gauthier expects him back this fall. One way or another, the issue will find some kind of resolution before (or on) July 28.

On a far less harmonious note, Benoît Pouliot would not survive another year the ire of the Canadiens’ brass, and his rights were not even qualified. The Habs resorting again to their horrendous practice of jettisoning an (undesired) asset for no return at all shows how much the talented but problematic forward had overstayed his welcome… and what an utter waste his career has been so far. The hard-working but decidedly too unproductive Tom Pyatt was also let go, a mild surprise given his status as a coach favourite.

Those moves resulted in a Habs team that looked almost exactly as the “Pierre Gauthier” model I had envisioned a month ago: penciling Engqvist in left three holes to fill in the lineup. No stupendously thrilling trade dazzled us before July 1^st finally came around, and all eyes turned to the UFA market.

The Once and Future Free Agency Frenzy

Honestly, let’s give credit to Pierre Gauthier for his work on Canada day (or, more to the point, moving day!). I had written he would set his sights on what I deemed mid-range options (Tomas Kopecky, Tomas Fleishmann, Scottie Upshall, etc.) for a spot on the 3^rd line… but that was before the mad market unravelled, stoked by Philadelphia fever, Buffalo’s Pegulapalooza (Ville Leino 6x$4,5, Christian Ehrhoff 10x$4,0), and the great Dale Tallon dumpster dive that saw my “mid-range” trio garner $11M for the next 4 years! Instead, not only did Gauthier target a viable top-3 option, and a proven power forward to boot, but he pried out of Carolina a player that I fully expected to stay put. Regardless of whether Erik Cole’s tenure as a Hab proves successful or not, one must admit it was hard to find a player more suited to Montreal’s needs on the 2011 UFA list.

Less thrilling perhaps was the 2-year contract granted to all but discredited netminder Petr Budaj, once touted as the Avalanche’s goaltender of the future . The Slovak-goalie-who-is-not-Jaroslav-Halak wilted in Colorado (where the goaltending position is utterly (and ironically) disregarded), losing hope of gaining a starter’s job and settling into a backup position he seems better suited for. Like Alex Auld last year, and with similarly less than enticing numbers, Budaj was hired out of nowhere to toil in the shadow of Carey Price (although he should see a bit more action than his predecessor).

In a mere matter of hours, the 2 key positions had been more than adequately filled . Yet, in the swirling free agent flurry surfaced one of these only-in-Montreal moments as the identity of the next man (likely the 14^th forward, or 8^th defenseman) became a litmus test of the GM’s competence. The fanbase became increasingly irritated as candidates viewed as desirable (Michael Rupp, Zenon Konopka, Maxime Talbot, …) or merely suitable (Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon, Pascal Dupuis) were whisked away by the competition. And so it goes, as few interesting catches remain in the dwindling crop (rugged winger Brad Winchester seems to top most wish lists).

As the dust settled, July in Habsland became so spectacularly underwhelming that rumours involving Chris Drury (?), Craig Rivet (??) and even Alex Kovalev (???) became the order of the day… while the badly sunstruck entertain vividly delirious dreams of Steven Stamkos and Drew Doughty in the bleu-blanc-rouge!

Rolling in the Deep

Unimpressed, Pierre Gauthier took to restoring a Hamilton squad notably depleted by Bulldogs bolting overseas (Dustin Boyd, Nigel Dawes & Kyle Klubertanz… so far!), leaving through free agency (J.T.Wyman) or, of course, graduating (Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais, Yannick Weber, Ryan White, and perhaps Andreas Engqvist). Brock Trotter was salvaged from the KHL to lend some scoring punch to the 1^st line, while AHL old hand Brian Willsie will bring a much-needed veteran presence. Those yearning for a trade saw their desires fulfilled, however scarcely, when big winger Michael Blunden was acquired in return for small forward Ryan Russell.

Frustrated Fans should consider how these “negligible” moves did bolster the team’s depth at NHL level. To wit, Willsie (381 games) and Blunden (51) have limited NHL experience, a luxury in the projected Hamilton lineup: save for grizzled captain Alex Henry (177), and with Engqvist (3) expected to start in Montreal, Aaron Palushaj (3), Mathieu Carle (3), Brendon Nash (2) and Brock Trotter (2) combine for a whopping 10 7 games in the show!

Is it October yet?

As of today, the Montreal Canadiens have $7,68M in available cap space and 3 free roster spots ($2,56M per spot). One of these spots has Gorges’ name on it, so that should leave approximately $4,68M and 2 second stringers to find… autrement dit, $3M of “comfortable cap cushion for another day” should the GM decide to sit on it until the roof starts leaking again.

So far, what I termed “Gauthier’ big dilemma” seems to have been settled thus: the Habs intend to trust in (and stake their playoff claims on) the quality and health of their existing blueline corps, with the significant addition of Alexeï Yemelin as provider of defensive brawn.

Andreï Markov – P.K. Subban

Hal Gill – Josh Gorges

Jaroslav Spacek / Alexey Yemelin / Yannick Weber

The available money was deemed better spent on finding appropriate help up front, mostly in the form of Erik Cole. With another strategic addition, the Habs could conceivably align three balanced scoring lines in 2011, with a playmaker (Plekanec, Gomez and Desharnais/Eller), a sniper (Cammalleri, Gionta and Kostistyn) and a power forward (Cole, Pacioretty and the mystery newcomer, unless Darche, White or Moen are deemed up to the task).

Mike Cammalleri – Tomas Plekanec – Erik Cole

Max Pacioretty – Scott Gomez – Brian Gionta

Andreï Kostitsyn– Lars Eller/David Desharnais – NEWCOMER

Travis Moen – Andreas Engqvist/Ryan White – Mathieu Darche

Whether these scoring lines actually score, however, remains to be seen, but there are grounds for optimism.

On the other hand, sticking to their (lack of) guns, the Habs organization seems steadfast in treating size and grit on the bottom 6 as a secondary issue. Yes, newly-signed BAMF Ryan White shows plenty of sandpaper and spirit, but he is of average size, and neither he nor Travis Moen can to take on heavyweights if need be. Mathieu Darche is all heart and determination, but he is not rugged, and rookie Andreas Engqvist has the required size, but does not really play a physical game. Hence, while a 4th line of Moen-Engqvist-White would be gritty enough, it is not terribly intimidating. And yet, the yearning for a true “gros bonhomme”  goes on… and on…

As the dog days of summer stretch on, here is what we can expect to see before training camp starts:

• Gorges and the Habs will settle before (or on) the fateful date, and arbitration will be moot;
• Pierre Gauthier should hire a 1^st line center… for the Bulldogs (Paul Szczechura? Jamie Lundmark? Michael Ryan?), for a recovering Louis Leblanc should not be ready to take on that role (and the collateral pressure) just yet;
• A borderline NHL veteran or two (Rob Davison? Danny Syvret? Andrew Hutchinson?) could be added to Hamilton’s blueline, especially since Mathieu Carle might still bolt for Europe  has been traded for Mark Mitera, who has never played an NHL game;
• Kirk Muller’s successor (remember him? he might be the new Hab with the biggest impact on the fate of the team!) will be nominated, and so will a new coach in Hamilton if Randy Cunneyworth gets the job;
• A new player could be added to the NHL roster, most likely a 3^rd line forward rather than a 4^th line enforcer/agitator type, but that will probably wait until later in September;
• Steven Stamkos will sign with Tampa, putting to rest all the silliness surrounding him (and so will Drew Doughty in LA);
• Scott Gomez will not be traded!

As an extra added bonus, here are things we could see unfold between training camp and the start of the season (Feel free to add any missed coming attractions in the comments section!):

• The mystery of the right-ended center will be solved: either Ryan White’s face-off skills will have improved enough to allow him to play center, or Andreas Engqvist will be deemed ready for the big league, or a plumber will be acquired (Adam Mair? John Zeiler? Paul Szczechura?) to fill Jeff Halpern’s shoes;
• The status of Yemelin and Diaz will become clearer – should both fail and perform well below expectations, Gauthier will acquire a defenseman at some point (more likely via trade – kiss that 2^nd rounder goodbye!), using the money hoarded during the summer;
• The identity of the last extra (14^th forward or 8^th defenseman, or even a swingman like Jason Strudwick) will be sorted out, as dark horses candidates out of Hamilton (such as Mathieu Carle, Brock Trotter or Andrew Conboy) are evaluated.
• A true assessment of Lars Eller’s health will determine whether he can start the season in Montreal – he probably won’t, and should even spend some rehab time in Hamilton upon his return… while Gauthier decides what to do with David Desharnais!
• Scott Gomez will not be traded!

Sooo… what can we possibly find to write about until then?

CHazam!

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2011-12 Habs… and Mine, and Pierre Gauthier’s !

ApproCHez, approCHez !

OK, so all the possibilities have been studied to death. It’s time to bring the pieces of our “Possess the Ghost” game together.

———————-

Goaltending ($2,75M on 1 player so far)

The goaltending position is settled, and while I would prefer to see Mathieu Garon back up Carey Price than Alex Auld, the variation in cost is about $500,000, and that is not significant. Let’s assume a $4M expense

———————-

Defense ($7,94M on 4 players so far)

Hal Gill – P.K. Subban

Alexey Yemelin – Jaroslav Spacek

Gauthier’ big dilemma is whether to bolster his blueline corps by adding two top-notch defensemen to his current foursome (or quintet, if one safely assumes that Josh Gorges will sign a new contract soon) or whether to save money for support up front.

If the Habs manage to bring Andreï Markov back, the first option entails either the return of James Wisniewski, or the signing of a big name UFA (such as Eric Brewer, Kevin Bieksa, Christian Ehrhoff or Joni Pitkanen). That would inflate the defense budget by $11M, plus close to $3M invested in Gorges. Hence, this luxury package would bring the back end cost to $26M, and it would look like this:

$5M UFA – P.K. Subban

Andreï Markov – Alexey Yemelin

Hal Gill – Josh Gorges

Jaroslav Spacek

+ Carey Price – Mathieu Garon

With expensive new contracts coming next year for Price and Subban (among others), this solution is unsustainable unless Markov and/or the new UFA signs a one-year deal, a highly unlikely scenario.

A cheaper alternative would involve the acquisition of a $3M, mid-range UFA such as Jan Hejda, Jonathan Ericsson or Anton Babchuk, but the expense might not be worth the effort of substituting an outsider to Yannick Weber in Gauthier’s eyes

Consequently, I expect the GM will take the conservative road and keep things as they are, letting the Wiz leave for greener pastures. Whether he will manage to recoup his loss and trade Wisniewski’s rights before July 1^st is anybody’s guess.

So the Habs $22M back-end configuration for next season should be:

Andreï Markov – P.K. Subban

Hal Gill – Josh Gorges

Jaroslav Spacek / Alexey Yemelin / Yannick Weber

+ Carey Price – Mathieu Garon

———————-

Offense ($30,08M for 8 players)

Substituting unknown quantity Alexey Yemelin for Roman Hamrlik frees up some money for changes up front, but that does not mean that Gauthier can go on a spending spree. The first 3 lines are virtually completed with the return of black sheep Andreï Kostitsyn and the imminent signing of RFA Max Pacioretty, although where AK46 should line up is open to debate.

Assuming Max Pacioretty is brought back for $2M (and that Gauthier forgoes the luxury package on defense in favour of the configuration above), the Habs can inject $8M to fill the remaining 5 spots in their offense. To that effect, two issues (should) dominate the thinking on the subject: the scoring woes of the top 9, and the lack of size/grit of the bottom 6.

To address the first, Gauthier’s problem lies in the paucity of talent available on the market this summer, pricing the few potentially interesting names (Brad Richards, Brooks Laich, Ville Leino,…) higher than their actual value. Of course, the GM can also opt for a quick fix by signing a 35+ player for 1 year (Vaclav Prospal, Cory Stillman,…), take a risk on a health-challenged asset (Simon Gagné, Tomas Fleischmann,…), or look for better 3^rd and 4^th liners while hoping that Kostitsyn might wake up and smell the free agency.

If need be, the Habs can afford a $5M addition, at least in the short-term. The problem is how to avoid a longer commitment, since youngsters like Pacioretty, Eller and Kostitsyn/his replacement will join Subban and Price (and perhaps Yemelin) in inflating the budget as soon as next year. It is thus very difficult to imagine wooing a Laich or Leino, who will certainly ask for a 4-5 year term.

The second problem is not an issue of scarcity, but one of sacrifice. Even if UFA Jeff Halpern is allowed to walk, the home-grown talent pool to fill the void includes incumbent RFAs David Desharnais, Tom Pyatt and Ryan White, plus farm hands Aaron Palushaj and Andreas Engqvist. Only 2 of these fulfill the requirements of the 4^th line the Habs need: White has the grit in spades, but is of average size, while the big Swede Engqvist, who has the making of an excellent defensive center, does not really play a physical game. On the other hand, neither Pyatt, Palushaj or Desharnais match that profile.

Of course, current Habs Travis Moen and Mathieu Darche are true grinders, so a 4^th line of Travis Moen, Andreas Engqvist and Ryan White is conceivable, although it is not a terribly intimidating one. The dilemma then becomes what to do with centers Lars Eller and David Desharnais, neither of whom are really suitable for a permanent job on the wing. One of them would probably have to be discarded to make way for a (hopefully larger) two-way winger who could provide some secondary scoring to the weak Hab offense (somebody like Tomas Kopecky, Scottie Upshall or Pascal Dupuis). The fall guy here is obvious: Desharnais would have to go, unless he is willing to spend the season as a spare.

Opting for a supporting cast of Andreas Engqvist ($900,000), Ryan White ($900,000), David Desharnais ($650,000) and Tom Pyatt ($550,000), or any substitutable UFA that could bring in more brawn (like Zenon Konopka, Michael Rupp, Boyd Gordon, Matt Bradley, Cody McCormick) would free about $5M… but what should Pierre Gauthier do with it?

• Invest that sum on a top 3 forward, if he could find one on the UFA market (Brooks Laich, Ville Leino,…), or obtain one in a trade;
• Add another quality defenseman (like the Wiz), and use Weber (or an equivalent $900,000 player) as a 14^th forward);
• Jettison a supporting character like Weber or Pyatt, and split the remainder to get two $3M forwards (Tomas Fleischmann, Jussi Jokinen, Éric Bélanger, Tomas Kopecky, Scottie Upshall, etc.), or one forward and a $3M defenseman (Anton Babchuk, Jan Hejda, Ian White,…).

I believe Pierre Gauthier should go for the 2^nd option, or if not feasible, the 1^st … but he will probably go for a fourth, namely sign a mid-range forward and keep a comfortable cap cushion for another day…

———————-

And now, it’s time to take the plunge.

For your consideration, here is my 2011-12 Canadiens lineup:

Mike Cammalleri – Tomas Plekanec  – Andreï Kostitsyn

Max Pacioretty  – Scott Gomez – Brian Gionta

Mathieu Darche – Lars Eller – Aaron Palushaj

Travis Moen – Zenon Konopka – Ryan White

David Desharnais & Cody McCormick

 

Andreï Markov – P.K. Subban

Alexey Yemelin – James Wisniewski

Hal Gill – Josh Gorges

Jaroslav Spacek

+ 

Carey Price – Mathieu Garon

• if I could pry Jakub Voracek from the Columbus Blue Jackets without giving up Subban or Pacioretty, I could live with letting the Wiz go and keeping Weber in his stead…
• if by some kind of miracle, I could get rid of Jaroslav Spacek, I would sign Tomas Kopecky instead of promoting Palushaj, and keep Yannick Weber as my 7^th D

———————-

With what we know of the man, here are Pierre Gauthier’s anticipated 2011-12 Canadiens:

Mike Cammalleri – Tomas Plekanec  – Andreï Kostitsyn

Max Pacioretty  – Scott Gomez – Brian Gionta

Travis Moen – Lars Eller – $3M UFA (or Palushaj) 

Mathieu Darche – David Desharnais – Ryan White

Tom Pyatt & $600,000 UFA (or Engqvist)

 

Andreï Markov – P.K. Subban

Hal Gill – Josh Gorges

Jaroslav Spacek/Alexey Yemelin/Yannick Weber

+ 

Carey Price – $1M UFA goalie

———————-

And, of course, YOUR 2011-12 Canadiens:

 Mike Cammalleri – Tomas Plekanec  – (…)

Max Pacioretty  – Scott Gomez – Brian Gionta

(…) – Lars Eller – (…) 

 (…) – (…) – (…) 

 (…) 

(where do you fit Travis Moen, Andreï Kostitsyn and Mathieu Darche in that grid?)

(…) – P.K. Subban

Hal Gill – (…)

Jaroslav Spacek – Alexey Yemelin

(…)

+ Carey Price – (…)

———————-

Have fun!

CHazam!

The Bottom 8: Size Does Matter (PG, part 6)

ApproCHez, approCHez!

Pierre Gauthier has been busy this week, ensuring the return of quality supporting character Mathieu Darche and,  arguably, locking up another of his top 6 players by re-upping Andreï Kostitsyn. Or did he?

Apparently, yes: the faith in AK46’s as yet unrealized potential seems to live on, although the terms of the contract show that it is not blind. But what if the Habs had the opportunity to seize a top-6 player on the free agent or, more likely, on the trade market?  I would jump at the chance, but I am not certain Gauthier will.

The addition AK46 means that $26,61M have been spent already on the top 6, with Max Pacioretty the only one piece missing. A hypothetical $2M contract for “Patches” would raise the total to $28,61M, so a sum of $9,39M can be used to round out the forward corps.

——————-

The Bottom 8

The Canadiens have 8 forwards under contract, and 3 of them – Travis Moen, Lars Eller and Mathieu Darche – belong in this category.

It would be very surprising to see all the incumbents return: Ryan White, the only real 4^th liner of the bunch, should win a regular job at last, and the much reviled Tom Pyatt might also return as a spare part, but in all likelihood, UFA Jeff Halpern will be free to seek a job elsewhere. The two forwards left out are Benoît Pouliot, whose goose seems cooked with the Canadiens, and David Desharnais, neither of whom are 4^th liners.

Of course, that depends on what one expects of a 4^th line. The most exasperating aspect of the recent configurations of La Flanelle is the persistent refusal to address the true vocation of their bottom 3…

In 2009-10, this could hardly be called a line at all, since it served as a dumping ground for inefficient specialists (Gregory Stewart, Sergey Kostitsyn, Georges Laraque), dubious Hamilton call-ups (Ben Maxwell, Brock Trotter, J.T. Wyman) or internally displaced defensemen (Marc-André Bergeron, Ryan O’Byrne!). Only Trotter is still nominally a member of the organization.

Last season, the trio of Pyatt – Halpern – Lapierre (with 4^th musketeer Dustin Boyd) was to assume this role. This time, it was actually a line, but it wasn’t a particularly sound one. It was a defensive unit (with no redeeming scoring value), but it was neither especially  energetic nor particularly intimidating. This makeup rapidly became moot anyway, as Boyd was demoted, Lapierre traded, and Halpern transmogrified into a 1^st line winger (to everyone’s stupefaction). The vagaries of injuries, player movement and coach punishment then brought in another motley crew including top 6 exiles Andreï Kostitsyn and Benoît Pouliot, upstarts Lars Eller and David Desharnais, call-ups Andreas Engqvist and Nigel Dawes, actual 4^th liners Travis Moen and Ryan White, and even, en désespoir de cause, defenseman Yannick Weber.

This has to stop.

——————-

Ideally, a contender should count on a third line that can provide secondary scoring, yet be defensively savvy enough to play against top lines, and on a 4^th line tough enough to provide energy and physical play when needed, while not giving up scoring chances. The Canadiens have not been able to stabilize their bottom 6 in this way so far, but they have or can easily acquire the tools to do so in 2011-12.

Provided his shoulder recovers fully, Lars Eller has the two-way ability and hockey sense to pivot an effective 3^rd line, while he grows into a more prominent role (which will require another season at least, since he needs to bulk up somewhat). His chemistry with Andreï Kostitsyn would make the Byelorussian Bear an ideal partner, especially since AK46 seemed more willing to mix it up physically and improve his “play without the puck” at the end of last year.

Would a bit less pressure to carry the team’s offense allow the consistency-challenged sniper to thrive with Eller? It might, especially if the Habs add another two-way player big enough to drive the net and more gifted than Travis Moen. This would allow the 3rd line not only to manufacture more scoring chances, but to actually convert them into points.

Unfortunately, I fear that the lessons of last year went unheeded: AK46 will stay in the top 6 until Jacques Martin loses patience, at which point the coach, for lack of a better choice, will turn to veterans like Darche or Moen. This should be  evidence enough why the acquisition of another forward with at least some offensive drive is imperative.

Of course, the Habs would already have this covered if Benoît Pouliot (an even bigger waste of talent than Kostitsyn) could reach even half of his potential, but this looks increasingly improbable as the big winger seems intent on shooting hinself in the foot at every opportunity. Will the Habs patience extend so far as to grant Pouliot a last reprieve? Jacques Martin’s attitude in the playoffs suggests not.

Fortunately, the free agent market, not teeming with top-tier talent, does offer interesting options in that regard, such as UFAs Ruslan Fedotenko, Scottie Upshall and Pascal Dupuis, or RFAs Tyler Kennedy, Wayne Simmonds and Jannik Hansen. There are plenty more on the trade front, even up to Eller compatriots Mikkel Boedker or Peter Regin, who could certainly do the job. My personal favorite for this particular spot would be Chicago’s free agent Tomas Kopecky, a big versatile winger  with upside.

The in-house candidate to complete the line would appear to be Mathieu Darche, or perhaps right-hander Ryan White if the Habs brass think his offensive weapons are sufficiently honed. In that case, Darche would revert to the role he held in the last two years, namely that of the veteran Swiss-Army-Knife spare, which would not be a bad thing either… except for Darche himself.

If we postulate a $2M UFA signing (say, Kopecky or Dupuis) joins Eller and Darche, the Habs 3rd line would cost $3,97M, and $5,42 would have to cover the last 5 spots in the roster.

——————-

For about $2,5M, the Habs already have 2/3 of a very acceptable 4^th line in the combination of Travis Moen and Ryan White (pending the latter’s signing, a formality). Even though White is a natural center, he seems more suited for a winger position in the NHL, so what we lack here is a pivot. And that’s where the difficulty lies.

The only center left from last year’s squad is home-grown success story David Desharnais. Alas, it seems obvious that DD does not have the required makeup for a rough-and-tumble 4^th line, where his size would be a hindrance and his offensive gifts would be wasted (the same can be said of Eller, even though he is bigger). It would make no sense for either party to see Desharnais forced by the Habs into such a thankless role… but would he fit anywhere else?

Unless one of the three centers is removed, the answer is no. Although he can manage very well in short term stints, Desharnais lacks the speed (to distance opposing defensemen) and sheer physical force (to battle for pucks along the boards) he would need to play 82+ games as a (checking) winger. That would preclude moving him permanently to wing, especially since the Habs already lack size at this position.

Since Plekanec is here to stay and Gomez cannot be gotten rid of (at least until next year), a center spot would only be open if Eller was the one to shift to wing. Last year’s experiment, though, demonstrated that the Dane is better suited for the center position (plus he won’t have acquired the strength he would need over the summer, because of his shoulder injury). If the Habs decide to go with that palliative again (Eller-Desharnais-Darche/UFA), the acquisition of a natural center in the Halak deal becomes even more befuddling than it already was; if they do not, Desharnais finds himself on the outside looking in…

To fill the hole in the middle of their 4th line, the Habs could turn to the farm and promote hulking Swede Andreas Engqvist. In his first year in Hamilton, the 6’4/197 right-handed center impressed his coach Randy Cunneyworth, who entrusted him first with defensive missions, and then with his second line after losing Desharnais, White and Fortier. Engqvist is a big man, but he is more cerebral than physical and does not use his size nearly enough to dominate the opposition. Nevertheless, Cunneyworth might put in a strong word in his favour, should he inherit Kirk Muller’s post as Jacques Marin’s assistant.

On the other hand, many UFAs fit the profile of a 4^th line checking center on the market (such as Marty Reasoner, Vernon Fiddler, etc.). As luck would have it, the most interesting may also turn out to be a fearsome enforcer.

30-year-old Zenon Konopka is a 6’/211 energy center/winger who is not mere muscle, but is capable of decent defensive play. He offers a heady mix of brawn (he likes to throw punishing hits and is one of the most eager fighters in the League) with an uncanny dominance in the face-off circle: last year, he won 57,67% of the 1075 face-offs he took, faring better than Jeff Halpern (56.9% of 594) and Tomas Plekanec (50% of 1577). All reports indicate that he is a hard worker and a good teammate. He has also publicly stated that he would relish the opportunity to play in Montreal, and rumor has it that his agent offered his services to Pierre Gauthier last year, but to no avail. Konopka is not a luxury signing, since he earned $600,000 with the New York Islanders in 2010-11.

One of the reasons why Konopka was spurned might be the fact that he is left-handed, as are Plekanec, Gomez, Eller and Desharnais. The need for a right-handed face-off man to replace Jeff Halpern could lead us to Washington’s Boyd Gordon. The 27-year-old 6’1/200 center is a quality defensive forward, versatile enough to play wing, who won 58% of 719 face-offs last season. He also displayed the kind of work ethic Jacques Martin lusts for, and some innate leadership abilities, but he is not a brawler and doesn’t drop the gloves.

If a bruiser is necessary, Gordon’s linemate Matt Bradley, a 6’3/201 right handed winger, is also available. The Penguins’ Michael Rupp, a 6’5/230 winger who can also line up at center, could be an interesting alternative, if Pittsburgh fails in its attempt to re-sign him. To fill a spare role, a similar, cheaper option is Buffalo’s Cody McCormick, a 6’3/230 right-handed depth forward, who might be willing to sit out more often than the others.

Of course, an interesting way out of the dilemma could be to hire two of these men, but that would likely mean that Tom Pyatt would have to be sacrificed!

A satisfying overhaul would bring the total number of casualties from last year’s team to 3: UFA Jeff Halpern, and RFAs Benoît Pouliot and Tom Pyatt OR David Desharnais (or both). I don’t see how any of the RFAs could be retained as Bulldogs, so Pierre Gauthier would have to attempt to find takers on the trade market. None of these can be expected to fetch a significant return on their own, but their inclusion in a package might allow the Habs to increase their gain in a larger deal.

If the Habs were to hire three outsiders, say Tomas Kopecky for $2M, Zenon Konopka for $1M, and Cody McCormick for $550,000 to keep him on the same footing as Tom Pyatt, a total of $4,1M would be needed out of the$5,42M alloted, and the Habs offense would look like this:

Mike Cammalleri – Tomas Plekanec  – Andreï Kostitsyn

Max Pacioretty  – Scott Gomez – Brian Gionta

Tomas Kopecky  – Lars Eller – Mathieu Darche

Travis Moen – Zenon Konopka –  White, Ryan 

Tom Pyatt   Cody McCormick

$1,32M would be left out of our self-imposed limit of $38M.

Add this to the $650,000  wrung from the 7-men defense, and you have a surplus of $1,97M off our total $60M budget. That does not include

• the $2,2M conservatively left out from the potential cap ceiling of $62,2M 
• the extra $1,3M added if the actual cap reaches $63,5M.

——————-

With close to $2M left in our pockets, the ensemble above is clearly not an ideal, nor even an optimal lineup. We should be able to do better than that!

Next up: Bringing the Pieces Together

CHazam!

Tantalizing Tricolore Trade Targets? (a bit of temporary insanity)

ApproCHez, approCHez!

In the last post, we saw what the Canadiens could offer in a deal to get the forward they seek. The flip side of that equation is: who, or what could they get?

Three categories of assets can be acquired via trade:

• Players already in the NHL
• Prospects
• Draft picks

Let’s focus on what we need , i.e. players, although I do believe that Pierre Gauthier might try to climb up in the draft in the coming weeks (by flipping the Habs’ 17th rank and one or two assets the other way)…

Players

These are also split into two types: restricted free agents, or players already under contract.

Of course, one can attempt to acquire an RFA by way of an offer sheet, but the drawbacks of that method are many (ill reputation, risk of retaliation, etc.), especially when some of your best players are slated to become RFAs themselves next year (for instance, P.K. Subban and Carey Price). The main problem is well expressed by Detroit’s GM Ken Holland:

“I think it’s a bit of an effort in futility because if you sign an offer sheet to a restricted (free agent) at the going rate, the team’s going to match. The only way you get these players is if you pay them way beyond what they’re worth. That’s really not what the cap world is all about. The cap world is about finding players that play beyond what you pay them.’‘

However, RFAs can become interesting trade bait, especially when financial woes or other issues seem to preclude their re-signing.

RFAs are young, generally unproven players (save for a Steven Stamkos or a Zach Parisé), and they can come with character or consistency issues (remember Sergeï Kostitsyn?), i.e. on the cheap. Sometime things work out (SK74, Clarke MacArthur), sometimes not (Dustin Boyd), but the potential reward can be worth the risk.

For example, here are – in decreasing order of age – a dozen of RFAs who could perhaps alleviate, now or down the road, the Habs’ offensive woes. Some, if not all of them, are believed available.

1. David Jones: the 26-year-old Avalanche winger is extremely versatile (can play left or right, plays a sound 2-way game) and could sneak into a top 6 position. He is big (6’2/210) and strong, but is apparently not aggressive enough to maximize the use of his bulk. A red flag: he also suffered several injuries.
2. Blake Wheeler: the 25-year-old former Bruin certainly has the size (6’5/208) and offensive acumen, but he has not played up to his potential so far. He needs to throw his body around more, and his “play without the puck” is a work in progress, so whether Jacques Martin would welcome him is anybody’s guess…
3. Viktor Stalberg: the same can be said of the Hawks’ winger, also 25, who had shown promise with the Maple Leafs before being sent off in the Kris Versteeg trade. He is a fast skater, has size (6’3 / 210) and a nose for the net, but his defensive coverage needs work.
4. Teddy Purcell: the LA Kings had given up on the promise of the prolific college scorer when they traded the 25-year-old winger to Tampa Bay, where he went relatively unnoticed until the Lightning’s playoff run. His size (6’2/198) and all-around offensive ability are attractive, but his inconsistency, and a somewhat lacklustre defensive game would be turn-offs for the Habs coach…
5. T.J. Oshie: conversely, the 24-year-old Blues forward is not big (5’11/194), but he is much more of a physical player. The energetic 2-way forward can play center or wing, and displays a scoring prowess worthy of a top 6 position. His love for dishing out big hits makes him somewhat vulnerable to injury. He might be available because of some attitude problems (he notably skipped a training session without explanation), so may not fit the team-first mentality the Habs seem to want to foster.
6. Devin Setoguchi: another maddeningly inconsistent winger whose best weapon is speed rather than size (6’0/200), the 24-year-old sniper lacks optimal strength to push through to the net or win battles on a regular basis, abilities that would increase his scoring chances… and that the Habs seek. He has shown a capacity to play a sound two-way game, but not as consistently as one would wish.
7. Artem Anisimov: even if he is only 23 and was very successful with the Rangers last season, the big Russian center (6’4/197) could nevertheless be a victim of the salary purge expected from the Blueshirts in their bid to lure Brad Richards to New York. A playmaker rather than a scorer, the solid two-way forward has the wherewithal to pivot one of the top 2 lines of an NHL team.
8. Shawn Matthias: another 23-year-old center with size (6’2/213) who showed a lot of promise upon his arrival, but has seen his development stall somewhat in the morass that is the Panthers organization. He plays a sound two-way game, is efficient in the face-off circle, and is loved by coaches for “doing the little things well”. He was expected to make more of a splash offensively than he has so far.

…the next four are “youngsters”, a draft generation removed from their predecessors:

1. Josh Bailey: the Islanders are apparently not satisfied with their 21-year-old center’s progress. He is a skillful playmaker and passer who can also play wing, but is currently used on the 3^rd line, where he is well served by his versatility and able defensive play, but unable to express his offensive prowess. He is still somewhat physically underdeveloped (6’1/188) to be fully effective as a 2-way forward.
2. Kyle Turris: once Wayne Gretzky’s favorite rookie, the Coyote’s lanky youngster (6’1/188) has the requisite tools to become a 1^st line center (talent, leadership, scoring acumen, playmaking skills, defensive awareness), but, at 21, has not yet matured into a full fledged top 6 NHL player, although he finally seems on his way there. For that reasion, Phoenix will probably not let him go.
3. Mikkel Boedker: the Coyotes, however, might be persuaded to part wth this 21-year-old. The rookie winger lacks the ideal size (5’11/202), but compensates with impressive speed. He displays sound offensive instincts, along with the inevitable defensive awareness needed to integrate into “The System”. While he might not (yet?) rank as a top-6 player, he might be very well suited to the style of his fellow Dane, Lars Eller.
4.  Jakub Voracek: rumors that the budding star was available swirled around the Blue Jackets at the trade deadline. If so, the 21-year-old RW would seem like a dream come true for the Habs: he has a great combination of size (6’2 / 213), deadly offensive skills and sound hockey sense, and he can be defensively responsible… plus he was born in Kladno, the hometown of his would-be center Tomas Plekanec. However, he tends to go through long scoring droughts and can take shifts, if not days off. Hence, this inconsistency and off-and-on performance are reminiscent of another player with size and a great skill set… Andreï Kostitsyn.

Voracek (who gets my vote!) and Oshie are probably the most suited to the Habs’ needs, but their status as emerging forces may make their price very steep. Gauthier may not have the requisite assets to tempt Columbus or St-Louis. The cheaper Boedker makes for an intriguing dark horse.

Moreover, some third and fourth liners of note could also be available, such as the Rangers’ humongous center Brian Boyle, LA’s energetic checker Wayne Simmonds, Vancouver’s feisty Dane Jannik Hansen and Pittsburgh’s tenacious sparkplug Tyler Kennedy. The UFA market, however, is much richer in players of that type.

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It is virtually impossible to know what established players are indeed available, unless teams make it public knowledge (as with Detroit’s Jiri Hudler). Yet some names are either obviously on the market:

• players who have become burdens, either because of their salary or their behavior (or both):

1. Montreal’s own Scott Gomez
2. Rangers Marian Gaborik, Sean Avery, Chris Drury and Wojtek Wolski (the latter two could also be bought out)
3. Devils Patrik Elias, Brian Rolston and Dainius Zubrus
4. Panther Rostislav Olesz (and the contract ex-GM Jacques Martin signed him to)
5. Calgary’s Daymond Langkow, Matt Stajan (NTC), Ales Kotalik (NTC) or Niklas Hagman (unless the latter two are bought out or buried in the AHL)
6. Edmonton’s Shawn Horcoff (NTC)
7. New King on the block Dustin Penner
8. Playoff non-entity Alexander Semin
9. Barry Trotz’s mal-aimé JP Dumont (NTC)
10. Pittsburgh’s headhunter Matt Cooke

• potential cap casualties for teams with financial issues or other pressing yet costly needs.

1. Ranger Erik Christensen (if NY chases Brad Richards)
2. Kris Versteeg, Scott Hartnell or even Jeff Carter (of goalie-deprived Flyers)
3. Canuck Mikael Samuelsson (following the price hike of Vancouver defensemen)
4. Still tight Chicago’s Dave Bolland
5. Detroit’s Valtteri Filppula or Justin Abdelkader (if the Red Wings have to replenish their defense)

• underachievers or promising players who have disappointed, and are or may be available for the right price:

1. Blue Jackets Nikita Filatov and Derick Brassard
2. Ottawa’s Dane Peter Regin
3. Toronto fans’ whipping boy Nazem Kadri (who grew up a Hab fan!)
4. Edmonton’s U2 sensation Gilbert Brûlé, or even Sam Gagner
5. Nashville’s KHL ghost Alexander Radulov

• players who keep reappearing in the rumor mill:

1. Forward-rich Oiler’s Ales Hemsky
2. Colorado’s Paul Stastny
3. Florida’s Stephen Weiss
4. Columbus sniper Kristian Huselius
5. Los Angeles face-off man Jarret Stoll

… and, according to Chuck Fletcher, apparently every Wild player not named Mikko Koivu (Brent Burns, anyone?)

Unfortunately, most of the aforementioned players are either of no use to the Habs, more problematic than what we already have (Filatov), or not accessible due to cap contraints (Semin or Gaborik, say!) or lack of appropriate assets  (ex. Hartnell or Carter would obviously be prized, but we have no goaltender to trade this year!). A name that stands out here would be Vancouver’s winger Mikael Samuelsson, if he is made available. Freed of his onerous contract, a bought-out, cheaper Niklas Hagman could also be intriguing.

Many other possibilities undoubtedly exist. Left to my own devices, I would probably enquire about the availability of big new Whitewash (?) center/winger Nik Antropov, versatile Blue Jacket (and Price nemesis) R.J. Umberger,  Calgary Flames winger David Moss or promising center Mikael Backlund, or young Predator Colin Wilson.

Far-fetched, I know, but, as the songs says:

“Somewhere over the rainbow, skies are blue, and the dreams that you dare to dream really do come true”

What do you think?

CHazam!

Thin Tricolore Trade Bait ? (PG intermission!)

ApproCHez, ApproCHez!

Let us detour from our (lengthy !) analysis of the Canadiens potential configuration for 2011-12 to examine what has to be a central issue for our GM.

Everybody and their mother agree that the Canadiens need to add at least one forward, and preferably a top-6 candidate to join Plekanec and Cammalleri on the first line. Given the dearth of high-end talent in this year’sUFAclass, Pierre Gauthier almost certainly will have to go the trade route if he hopes to upgrade his roster. Of course, anticipating trades is a perilous exercise fraught with rumor traps, and possibilities are difficult to assess, since we have no way to know who might be available (and at what price!) on either end, but … speculating is so much fun!

Obviously, uttering the T-word begs the following question: do the Habs have anything worth trading for? Most fans are rather unimpressed with the wares Gauthier might offer to attract other GMs. Is their concern warranted?

In truth, Habs have no current available roster players of value: Tomas Plekanec, Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta are fixtures (with no-trading clauses), Hal Gill was just re-upped, P.K. Subban  and Carey Price are (hopefully) not going anywhere, and I would be extremely surprised if Pierre Gauthier dealt Lars Eller, the centerpiece of his most famous trade, so soon after acquiring him. That leaves grinder Travis Moen, not the most enticing of lures, and virtually unmovable albatrosses Scott Gomez and Jaroslav Spacek.

Gomez might interest a penny-pinching team eager to reach the cap floor when his real-dollar salary dips under his cap hit, but that will not happen until next year, and Gomez has done nothing to make himself attractive in the meantime. There is an outside chance that Spacek might be foisted upon a team needing experience on the blueline, but since there are many such defensemen on the market, Gauthier would have to throw in an interesting asset (a quality draft pick or prospect) to pull that off; the only other possibility is a salary swap, whereby a team would get rid of its own albatross for Spacek.

However, the GM could mine the Habs’ large crop of restricted free agents. Obviously, Josh Gorges and Max Pacioretty are staying put (unless the offer is truly too good to be true), but Andreï Kostitsyn (and, on a smaller scale, Ryan White) probably could be had, although only for a significant return: Kostitsyn has too much (as yet unrealized) upside to be thrown by the wayside like his brother was, and the organization apparently likes White a lot. On the other hand, Benoît Pouliot, who is now, for all intents and purposes, dead meat, might be swapped for another team’s problem (like Latendresse was!), but he’s been there before, and thus wouldn’t be worth a very helpful player or prospect.

Accordingly, the most likely (if not the easier) RFA assets to move are Yannick Weber and… David Desharnais. Brace for an outcry!

• Yannick Weber: Puck-moving defensemen that can run power-plays are a sought-after commodity. Accordingly, the Habs’ increasingly irrelevant Swiss rearguard might catch the eye of another GM looking to improve his blue-line mobility and transition game. Weber lacks ideal size, but he’s learning to compensate with sound positioning and is improving in his own end. His right-handed shot is also a plus.

• David Desharnais: Try as I might, I just cannot see how the little player that could fits in Montreal’s current lineup, unless Lars Eller (not going to happen) or Scott Gomez (alas!) is dispatched to greener pastures. Since Plekanec is a fixture, the only open spot at center is on the 4^th line, where a 5’6 playmaking wizard seems amazingly out of place. Of course, Eller or Desharnais could be shifted laterally, but early Eller-to-wing experiments demonstrated how much better the Great Dane is at his natural position, while Desharnais, who did well in short stints, seems to lack the speed (to distance opposing defensemen) and sheer physical force (to battle for pucks along the boards) he would need to play the wing for 82+ games. Teams who seek scoring depth on their 3^rd line (like Ottawa or Minnesota) or even their 2^nd (like Phoenix or Florida) could take a chance on the ever-productive Desharnais, especially if they have wingers with size and a nose for the net to place at his sides. Since Gauthier has proven popularity is not what he values, he might be willing to weather the storm such a trade would provoke (hey, he could make an annual event out of it!).

The most valuable short-term assets in Montreal’s arsenal may turn out to be virtual ones, namely UFA rights. The prize here is James Wisniewski, or perhaps Andreï Markov (if negotiations with the Habs fail). The Wiz has gathered numbers worthy of an elite offensive rearguard last year, and is 27-years-old, i.e. just entering is prime (making his value higher than Markov’s). With Tomas Kaberle’s stock plummeting as the playoffs progresses, Wisniewski should be one of the most sought after UFA defensemen this summer, and Gauthier could profit from that high demand. Roman Hamrlik’s rights could also be acquired by interested parties, but would obviously fetch a much less interesting reward (perhaps a small bump upwards at the draft).

Aaron Palushaj is probably the most trade-worthy player in Hamilton right now, and he does not rate as a blue-chip prospect. Bulldogs Andreas Engqvist, Alexander Avtsin, Gabriel Dumont and Brendon Nash could also be offered, but they have little to no market value on their own.

None of the Canadiens’ younger prospects can be considered untouchable, although I think it would take a mind-blowing offer to pry away Louis Leblanc or Jarred Tinordi. Unfortunately, that does not leave a wealth of options: diminutive scorer Brendan Gallagher, college defenseman Mac Bennet, sizable winger Steve Quailer or elusive Russian Maxim Trunev are among them, but a premium has to be placed on speedy Danny Kristo, arguably the organization #1 prospect.

I believe the Habs could afford to sacrifice Kristo, a talented two-way player with some grit who is held in high esteem, because of his size (5’11,180): the Habs already have a large number of smallish player in their pipeline (Desharnais, Dumont, Gallagher, Ryan Russell, Philippe Lefebvre, sans compter Brock Trotter, Michael Cichy ou Patrick Johnson) and, more importantly, on their roster. A package of structured around Kristo should be able to yield an NHL player, if not an elite one.

Can Pierre Gauthier turn Benoît Pouliot, Yannick Weber, David Desharnais or the rights to James Wisniewski into the asset he craves, or will he have to sacrifice Kristo to achieve his goal?

Time will tell. In the meantime, what say you?

CHazam!

UFA Defencemen: An Embarrassment of Riches? (PG, part 4)

ApproCHez, ApproCHez! (quick, before everyone is signed!)

In posts 2 and 3, we looked at the defensemen we have, i.e. those already under contract and restricted free agents.

So far, 5 slots out  of a possible 8 are already allotted, for a total of $9,54M: all-around stud P.K. Subban is worthy of a top-pairing, steady Josh Gorges can play on the second but would be better on the third, Jaroslav Spacek and Yannick Weber are third-pairing material at best, and Alexei Yemelin’s place, if any, is as yet unknown.

Thus $8,46M remains off our $18M initial budget for defense. This has to buy us a top-flight rearguard ($4-5M) and a quality #3 or 4 ($2-3M). Another 3^rd pairing/depth D ($1,5M), although not strictly necessary, would be useful, and the Habs have just the man for the job!

————————————

Hal Gill  ***UPDATED***

With the arrival of Alexei Yemelin and Raphael Diaz, the Habs do not need to buy more depth. Moreover, if Yemelin lives up to his reputation, Gauthier won’t have to seek a bruiser such as a Steve Montador or Shane O’Brien.

The role Hal Gill plays with the Habs transcends his (limited) on-ice contribution so much that several teammates publicly called for his return. I think he will be back.  ***UPDATE: Gill just signed a one-year contract.***

Arguably, Gill would have to see his pay, and perhaps even his role cut.

***UPDATE: Apparently, his value cannot be overstated: Gill was offered $2,25M, like last year. While this is a bit pricy, perhaps Pierre Gauthier felt that asking the veteran for a pay cut would somehow indispose him or impair his standing leadership-wise…***

I don’t see how 36-year-old Gill could regularly pair up with Subban again, unless P.K.’s time on ice is significantly reduced… but that would make little sense (yet with Jacques Martin, who knows?). Expect to see “Skillsy” reunited with Josh Gorges on the main shutdown unit. Gill-Gorges makes a wonderful 3^rd pairing, but an iffy 2^nd, given doubts as to their ability to handle close to 20 minutes of play. If Gorges is given a more demanding assignment, Gill could end up mentoring Yemelin or Weber.

*** So Gill eats up $2,25M (instead of $1,33M), but he is not the #3-4 we are looking for. Apparently, we will have to lower our expectations in that regard…***

————————————

 We now have $6,21M left and two top-4 defensemen to find. Bear in mind that the dubious quality of this year’s UFA crop means that prices will be highly inflated and that players, especially younger ones, will likely seek long term commitments.

Before we even start, let us dispose of two pleasant yet futile fantasies:

• Kevin Bieksa, a.k.a. Andrei Markov’s ideal partner, is no longer available, if he ever was.Vancouver will almost certainly re-sign him. Were he to leave the Canucks this summer (especially with a Cup ring), the race to acquire him will drive his price through the roof;

• Even if Tampa has to cut him loose, the playoff performances of Eric Brewer, a.k.a. P.K. Subban’s ideal partner, will also price him out of the Habs’ range. Brewer, 32, is a big top-pairing defenseman (6,3/222) who eats a ton of minutes, can shut down the opposition and lend offensive support. His leadership skills became plain for all to see during the ECF.

With Bieksa and Brewer out of the equation, the top high level free agents that remain are Ed Jovanoski, Tomas Kaberle and Joni Pitkanen. Expect the Canadiens to turn to a familiar face instead!

—————————————-

Andrei Markov:

Everybody knows what the Russian…. er, Canadian rearguard brings to the table: an elite puck-mover and power-play quarterback who displays superior positioning and savvy in his own zone, even under pressure. Markov is part of the Habs’ “leadership committee”, and seems genuinely invested in the team: his oft-reiterated desire to stay rings true. Bringing back the Canadiens’ best player should be a no-brainer, were it not for his injuries.

Legitimate questions exist as to Markov’s ability to fully recover from two ACL reconstructions, or to play the big minutes required of a #1 defenseman: after all, he has only played 52 games in the last 2 seasons. If he remains “fragile”, counting on him could be risky, especially come playoffs time. Yet this predicament is not unique (see Gorges, Pacioretty). Markov is only 32. Why should his recovery be any less successful than that of the similarly affected James Wisniewski?

Markov’s experience and hockey sense would still make him a valuable asset even if his trademark smooth skating should suffer. His remarkable vision and passing skills should not be impaired, and younger teammates could learn from his ability to “sell the shot” on the power-play. Pairing him with a fleet-footed partner such as Subban could also compensate for any loss in mobility. After all, if Spacek can adjust, Markov surely can!

#79 will be back. Negotiations to that effect are apparently underway already (I think time, rather than mnoney, is the issue here).***If Hal Gill was not asked to take a pay cut, do you really expect Pierre Gauthier will short-change Markov (unless his agent accepts a years-for-dollars tradeoff)?***

Let’s pencil him in at $5,75M for next year.

——————————————-

With Gill and Markov on board, the Habs’  $17,54M blueline looks like this:

Markov – Subban

Gill – Gorges

Yemelin / Spacek / Weber

In this scenario, Markov must play with Subban because nobody else can handle his minutes, and Gorges-Gill is not our 3^rdpair, but our 2^nd. Perhaps Yemelin can handle more ice time, but neither Spacek nor Weber is a bona fide #3-4… and our two incumbents will soon be UFAs.

————————————

Roman Hamrlik

The job of steady 2^nd-pairing D has long been held, rather successfully if at an overblown price, by Roman Hamrlik. “Hammer” has even been forced into the top 2 by Markov’s prolonged absence, adding to the wear and tear already affecting the 37-year-old. Hamrlik claimed he wanted to stay and would sign at a “discount” price, but even slashing his salary by half would net him $2,75M (arguably at least $2,25M if he tests the market).

While many think that Pierre Gauthier has to choose between Gill and Hamrlik ***Gill is in!***, the real hindrance here is Jaroslav Spacek. Can the Canadiens afford to have both “Old Czechs” on the roster?

If the Habs can deal away Spacek, Hamrlik could come back for a year, as a short-term candidate for the #3 job (until, say, Jarred Tinordi comes along). That would leave Subban as the only right-handed shot among the regulars.

With $3,83M freed, Gauthier might prefer a younger alternative:

• Columbus’  Jan Hejda ($2M) is a crafty shutdown veteran, younger (32) and more rugged than #44, but performance-wise, the difference is not striking enough to warrant choosing him over Hamrlik.
• Jonathan Ericsson, 27 is a big defenseman (6’4/220) with significant upside who can log big minutes and has come of age in one of the best organizations in hockey. With Brian Rafalski gone and Niklas Lidstrom on the ledge, the Red Wings will probably want him back. He was making $900,000, but may get close to $3M.
• Calgary’s Anton Babchuk is the only right-hander of note (apart from oft-injured veteran Radek Martinek and tough-guy Steve Montador). With his 6’5/212 frame, the 27-year old is imposing and can hold is own defensively, but he is not an elegant skater and can display the same kind of suspicious defensive acumen as Wisniewski. He is also a shooter on the power play, although not quite as prolific as the Wiz (35 points to Wiz’s 41). His saving grace is that he should come considerably cheaper, since he was paid $1,4M last year, and could probably be had for $2,75M or less. As an added feature, Babchuk is from Kiev has lined up against Yemelin in the KHL: perhaps he could help facilitate the newcomer’s transition to North America.

Of course, all this rests on a significant assumption, namely, the departure of the Wiz.

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James Wisniewski:

Wisniewski is a quality offensive defenseman with a physical edge, not overly big, but very aggressive – and he can be nasty (a broken jaw prevented Montreal fans from appreciating his pugilistic abilities). His defensive play, on the other hand, can be heart attack-inducing. Just entering his prime, Wisniewski would be an excellent addition… if we could afford him.

Unfortunately, $4,29M (hypothetically departed Spacek’s $3,83M and the $460,000 left of our budget) will not buy you Wisniewski. His great numbers and the dearth of young UFA talent almost guarantee that a GM will pay him in the vicinity of $5M and/or lock him for several years. Do the Habs really see the 27-year-old as part of their long-term defensive core, on a par with P.K. Subban, Josh Gorges (potentially) and Jarred Tinordi (eventually)? Enough to give him, say, $5M+ for 5 years?

If so, the defense budget would have to expand to a staggering $22,54M+, unless the group is trimmed (Spacek and/or Weber dealt, Yemelin demoted to Hamilton/Russia), or the Habs decide to let Andrei Markov walk instead.

Wisniewski’s downfall may be the high value of his rights as trade bait (higher than Markov’s).

The Wiz promises to be one of the most sought after UFAs this summer, and many deep-pocketed suitors will woo him. Perhaps one of them will wish to gain an edge on the competition by acquiring his exclusive negotiating rights before July 1^st. The unsigned Wisniewski is, in fact, the best asset the Habs hold if they expect to make a deal before the draft, and since no useful forward can be had otherwise, I think the Wiz is as good as gone.

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I think there is no need to underline that Brent Sopel and Paul Mara will also have to seek employment elsewhere come July 1^st.

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Trying to acquire a restricted free agent via offer sheet is not in Pierre Gauthier’s nature. Detroit’s GM Ken Holland is not convinced either:

“I think it’s a bit of an effort in futility because if you sign an offer sheet to a restricted (free agent) at the going rate, the team’s going to match. The only way you get these players is if you pay them way beyond what they’re worth. That’s really not what the cap world is all about. The cap world is about finding players that play beyond what you pay them.’‘

Hum. So many comments… so little time!!

====================

We now have enough information to structure Montreal’s’ 2011-12 blueline.

If Gauthier opts for an 8-men defense, I would like nothing more than to see the Habs retain the $22,54M+ luxury package of Wisniewski AND Markov. Imagine this:

Markov – Subban

Yemelin – Wisniewski

Gill – Gorges

Spacek / Weber

However, this seems highly unlikely unless, as reported, the cap ceiling rises to $63,5M instead of the expected $62,2.

–

Instead, a $20M defense corps (with a $2M overspending on the budget) would most likely look like this:

Markov – Subban

Hamrlik – Yemelin   (or Yemelin-Babchuk),

Gill – Gorges

Spacek / Weber  

This lineup is hardly sustainable, since it entails shifting Weber at forward or scratching him from the lineup, along with either Spacek or Yemelin, for every game until somebody gets injured.

Accordingly, if we assume that Markov’s return is in the bag, watch out for a Hamrlik (or any defenseman) signing. If that happens, Weber will be part of a trade package this summer… unless Gauthier can get rid of Spacek.

Good Luck !

–

I surmise that the Habs will keep only 7 defensemen on the roster, and trade away Wisniewski’s rights (perhaps Hamrlik’s as well – there might be takers at the draft).

Hence, in all likelihood, the defense corps should take the aforementioned $17,54M configuration (with Diaz on standby in Hamilton):

Markov – Subban

Gill – Gorges

Yemelin / Spacek / Weber (alternating)

–

Good? Bad? So-so?

What say you?

=============

Next up: we look forward!

CHazam!

So Many Defensemen, So Little Space! (PG, Part 3)

ApproCHez, ApproCHez!

Now this is where it gets more complicated…

In the last post, we saw that 3 of the 7, or more likely 8 openings on the Habs blueline have already been filled. Penciled in are P.K. Subban, Alexei Yemelin and, barring a miraculous trade, Jaroslav Spacek. This trio eats up about $5,89M of our proposed $20M allotment for defense.

The Habs also have six restricted free agents whose rights they can retain simply via a qualifying offer. Only one of them is a true NHLer.

v      One-way contract:

• Josh Gorges:

Before his longtime injury finally got the best of him, “Gumbi” was well on his way to becoming a fan favorite in Montreal. Identified as a “young leader”, the unprepossessing Gorges’ heart, character and resilience got him deserved praise during the Habs 2010 cup-run. Not bad for a stay-at-home defenseman who is neither big nor spectacular.

Able to line up on both sides of the ice with aplomb, Gorges is a versatile, low-maintenance rearguard: he’s efficient in his own zone, an excellent penalty-killer, able to initiate the transition with a good first pass, and can pitch in, albeit sparingly, on offense. His mistakes are few and far between. He will sacrifice his body by accepting checks and blocking shots, or even by playing hurt (apparently, since his junior days!). Gorges knows how to make the most of his ability (as the cliché goes, “he does the little things well) and, perhaps more importantly, always “brings it”. His leadership skills made him a dark horse candidate for the captain’s job last summer, and both his teammates and the organization seem to like him (he sat at the draft table last summer, and represented the team at the Heritage Classic’s press junket).

There seems little doubt that the Habs intend to keep him in the fold, perhaps even to lock him up for a good long while. But are they willing to do so at any cost, and is he worth it? (Topham at Lions in Winter has an interesting take on that very point).

Everything hinges on Gorges’ status as an RFA. The Habs could simply make him a qualifying offer, at $1,3M (his real-dollar salary last year) for one year, but that would be impolitic unless the Habs do not intend to keep him long-term. Moreover, another team might then try to woo him away with an offer sheet.

Having played 6 seasons in the NHL, Gorges is eligible to arbitration. The bad news is that arbitration is an adversarial process that usually leaves both parties bitter and unsatisfied, which is why many contracts are signed only days or even hours before the scheduled hearing; the good news is that arbitration shields the player from predatory offer sheets. Hence, if the Habs decide to take Gorges to arbitration in the coming weeks, do not panic: it protects their exclusive negotiating rights until the arbitration date.

To my mind, Gorges is perhaps one of the best #5 defencemen in the league (and a good #4). That makes him excellent trade bait (see Topham’s argument), but the return would have to be significant (a top 6 forward with immediate impact… or perhaps a top 5 1st round draft pick!) for the Habs to consider packaging him out. I don’t think that will happen: because of the stabilizing influence he brings to the blue line, the quality minutes he eats up, and the “imponderables” he provides, the Habs will probably offer him a new contract.

There are two reasons why it might not (yet) be a long-term deal. The first is the injury: the brass might want to ensure that Gorges is back at 100% before committing. The second, which is valid for all signings, is the looming renegotiation of the CBA in 2012: although another lockout/strike should hopefully be avoided, negotiations might yield a lower salary cap, and/or provide the possibility to buy back an expensive albatross (hey there, Scott) without penalty, etc. Teams will be reluctant to establish their salary structure before they know what tomorrow will bring.

On the downside, a one-year contract would take Gorges to unrestricted free agency and would strengthen his bargaining position next year.

Part of an agent’s job is to identify “comparables” to gauge their client’s value. While I have no idea how that is actually done, possible candidates for this exercise could include:

• Atlanta’s Mark Stuart (same age, more physical but less versatile), who makes $1,700,000;
• Minnesota’s Greg Zanon, who’s a bit older but very similar, and makes $1,933,333;
• Niklas Hjalmarsson (who is younger, more physical, and a Cup winner) saw Chicago match a $3,5M offer sheet last year;
• After a good playoff performance, Cup winner Rob Scuderi got $3,4M from LA as aUFA;.
• Atlanta got Johnny Oduya, who is slightly more experienced (and also a Cup winner!) for $3,5M.
• ***UPDATE: St-Louis just signed 25-year-old stay-at-home defenseman Roman Polak to a 5 year, $2,75M cap hit contract***

Gorges should not get more than $3M (returning from season-ending injury, insufficient experience, no Cup), but the “Montreal premium” might drive his salary over Zanon’s $2M. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him offered more or less double his current salary, somewhere between $2,5M and $2.75M… no longer the bargain he was, but good value nonetheless.

For the sake of argument, let us assume something like $8,25M for 3 years / cap hit: $2,75M (buying one more year of free agency).

Hence, $8,64M would buy us half of our defense corps for next season.

v      Two-way contracts:

• Yannick Weber

Given his progress, “le jeune Vébère” can now legitimately stake a claim on a permanent job… but it might not be with the Habs!

What the Canadiens’ brass think of Weber is unclear (I am not sure he has won over the coaching staff), and the acquisition of a similar player in Raphael Diaz only fuels this uncertainty.

Weber is at the very least a valuable depth defenseman because of his low price (a $605,000 qualifying offer, if nothing else) and the fact that he would still be exempt from waivers on a two-way contract. On the other hand, he is also a young, skilled puck-moving defenseman with a booming right-handed shot and the ability to quarterback a powerplay (not yet displayed at the NHL level, though). Such players do not grow on trees, and there might be a demand for his services on the trade market. With Subban, Diaz and maybe even Carle in the mix, Weber might prove expendable if the quest for a quality top 6 forward requires it.

Still, I believe he will still don the bleu-blanc-rouge come October, possibly in a “Mark Streit-lite” swingman role as the 8^th defenceman/14^th forward, if only for a year. The Habs may offer him a one-way contract instead of a qualifying offer, in which case he could get something like $875,000 (same as last year’s cap hit, with bonus). Let us assume that Weber will sign a new contract for $900,000.

• Alexandre Picard:

Picard is only 25, and has size and puck-moving skills, but he is woefully inconsistent and a liability in his own zone. He is running out of NHL opportunities, and won’t find one in Montreal.

Of course, the Habs could keep him around, strictly for depth purposes, by qualifying him at $660,000 with a two way contract (he still would have to clear waivers upon his first demotion, but might not have to go trough re-entry waivers if called up). I am not sure whether this is even possible, since Picard’s NHL experience makes him arbitration-eligible. IF it is, the Habs could set up an experienced “bullpen” in Hamilton, with lefties Picard and Henry, plus righties Diaz and (perhaps) Carle available in case of emergency.

Conversely, the brass might decide to “accommodate” Picard and let him go altogether, allowing him to seek employment elsewhere, hopefully in the NHL, or perhaps in Europe.

• Mathieu Carle

The right-hander was again the best defenseman in Hamilton… when he played. His career so far has been hampered by numerous injuries, and although he his only 23 year old, Carle finds himself at a crossroads: will he become an AHL lifer (or a European expat), or will he be given a chance to prove himself in the NHL?

Alas, unless a catclysm befalls the defense or a spectacular trade occurs (wiping out Spacek and Weber, for instance), this opportunity will not come from Montreal.

However, if he does not leave as part of a trade package, Carle could be snatched in late September by another organization looking for affordable defensive depth, since he is not waiver-exempt. The Tampa Bay Lightning, home of his former GM Julien BriseBois and coach Guy Boucher, comes to mind !

• Frederic St-Denis

St-Denis fought an uphill battle to end up where he is. Undrafted after 5 years with Drummondville (QMJHL), he played a season at Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières before signing with the Bulldogs as a free agent. He then spent some time in the ECHL before graduating to Hamilton, where his steady play soon made him indispensable, and the Habs finally inked him to a 1-year contract last season.

He is an efficient rearguard in the AHL, but is not an NHL prospect, as he lacks the requisite size and skill set. However, his impeccable work in Hamilton and resilience in the face of adversity might earn him a short cup of coffee in Montreal, if the Habs feel he deserves having his dream come true.

• Kyle Klubertanz

Klubertanz is a product of the NCAA, who came to the Habs by way of Europe. He played in Finland and Sweden before joining the Bulldogs last year. The Habs will probably qualify him, as they usually do with minor RFAs, but they have no plans for him beyond Hamilton. Whether he comes back to the ‘dogs next year or chooses to go back to Europe remains to be seen.

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If we accept the assumptions made above, we have now spent $9,54M on 5 defensemen (Subban, Spacek, Yemelin, Gorges and Weber), most of them young and relatively green. You know what must be done next!

Next up: the UFA Defencemen

CHazam!